A divided Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could pose a significant challenge for President William Ruto as he seeks to consolidate support from traditional opposition strongholds, according to Dennis Onsarigo, former press secretary at Azimio.
Speaking on Wednesday during an interview with Radio Generation, Onsarigo said a united ODM would have been advantageous for the ruling United party, especially in trying to win over counties historically loyal to Raila Odinga.
"A disaggregated ODM is going to be problematic for him, because this is how I look at it," he explained, emphasizing that Odinga’s support base spans nearly 20 counties across the coastal, pastoral, and northern regions.
He highlighted counties like Tana River, Kilifi, Mombasa, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Narok, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, and Mandera, which have consistently backed Odinga due to historical marginalization.
“If these counties now feel they are part of this, if they feel welcome in this regime, then it's up to the President and his handlers to make sure that these counties are kept and whipped in one direction,” Onsarigo said, noting the importance of preserving their political identity.
The former press secretary also pointed to the uncertainty created by ODM’s fragmentation, particularly in the coastal region, where communities are debating their political direction following the party’s internal splits.
He cited meetings by local leaders attempting to chart a path forward, but said it remains unclear where support will consolidate.
ODM rival factions have escalated their power struggle, shifting the contest to the control of political bases long associated with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga (deceased).
With the broader opposition also digging in, Raila’s traditional strongholds are now bracing for an influx of political activity, including the possible emergence of new parties targeting elective seats beyond the presidency.
Within ODM, the camps led by party leader Oburu Oginga and embattled secretary general Edwin Sifuna have gone all out in the battle to inherit Raila’s political turf. The rivalry threatens to weaken ODM’s leverage in negotiations with President William Ruto’s UDA.
Onsarigo warned that the ruling party cannot take ODM votes for granted.
He said, "If I was William Ruto, I would sit in a room and say, I mean, how many votes can you bring for me on board?" He also noted the historical role of Raila in stabilizing the current regime, suggesting that a divided ODM could weaken negotiations and voting blocs that previously held leverage.
Onsarigo discussed the emergence of new factions, including the so-called Linda Mwananchi group, noting that it is too early to determine its impact.
“We can't see where Linda Mwananchi is going… it has not crystallized,” Onsarigo said, adding that potential alliances with the United opposition could further complicate political calculations.
Onsarigo concluded that coalition-building remains an intricate process of timing and strategy, cautioning that both the ruling party and opposition must carefully navigate shifting loyalties to secure support ahead of future elections.
